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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly functions as a type of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the coach who oversaw the largest resurgence wins the award. However, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or merely the greatest upset.

However this year's competition is profoundly different. The pool of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions declining and recent strugglers rising collectively. During an typical year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in this wild and entertaining season, he's up against multiple other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right system, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a normal season!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

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