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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, especially given Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize more land following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would constitute guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is near accepting the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept troops from Nato countries operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the issue of land. A key demand centers on Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard units rather than the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.