Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
